MUSINGS OF THE ECONOMIC VARIETY

Every morning after checking the welfare of the alpacas the very first thing we do is go to our favourite Aussie newspaper website at www.theage.com.au  This morning I read about the largest drop on the Aussie share market in 20 years. It was in response to the US charge toward recession. They are calling it Black Tuesday at home. Typical media, making it sound like a return of the plague. Anyway after I lifted my bottom lip and got over the possibility that our super fund has just dropped likewise, that our property value has probably plummeted, that it may affcet the Aussie alpaca sales and that how the hell did Australia and all Asia follow in the footsteps of the US down turn when most our economy is based in Asia, I got to thinking how this affects alpaca farming here.

Well it's nothing new.

I recall it was 1990 when Jude and I got started alpaca farming during a huge recession. But then the alpaca thing was new and it just travelled on its own way almost in ignorance of the economic environment of the time. The tech stock plunge also had no effect. Then in July 2001 I moved over to the US to start our full time US alpaca involvement and within a few months Sept 11 reared its ugly head.  I thought " bugger, its all over, gone, why didn't I wait a few months more and save myself a whole lot of work". But in defiance the alpaca industry got real legs and went on a trip of its own defying the tipsters. It surged. It turned out people wanted to get real lives, to forget the stress of living in heavily populated cities and 50 hour working weeks and wanted something they could relate to. And the sweet long eyelashes plus the allure of country living attracted a huge interest in alpaca farming.

So what then of these latest economic woes. I am no genius in these matters or I'd be on my private South Pacific island mulling over where I was going to surf next, but my guess is everything will be fine. There are a lot of pressures on the industry right now as there are many industries. There are more animals being born every day. There are more badly run and marketed auctions every year that reflect poorly on the industry.The US industry bodies are yet to embrace fiber consciousness and proven scientific breeding methods like ET and gauging economic production with Estimated Breeding Values. Potential sales may be affected by the real estate bust and perhaps now the hit on savings and investments via the share market down turn and the sub prime fiasco. But in the past people have turned to alpacas. They love them. They get considerable tax concessions plus they have possession mostly of their investment. They can see it , feel it and they have some control over it. They actually feel safer having to care for the animals and managing their alpaca business and I am talking about those folks who want the hands on. These people make up a majority of the buyers. It will be interesting to watch how this downturn affects the wallets of potenial buyers. Again, only backed by circumstantial evidence via some industry backed membership surveys, I know most buyers are middle to slighty upper income, women make most the decisions, and these folks are in the 45-55 year age group who are succcesful professionals and business manager/owners. My hunch is this yacht won't change tack, maybe might veer upwind a bit but the real test will be to see if breeders can run their alpaca farms more like businesses rather than hobbies to reap the benefits that will be out there.

Whatever happens it's almost that time of year again with the show season around the corner and many births on the way. Jude has declined judging at all the major shows so we can strut our stuff again in the show ring and we are choosing show candidates this week. We'll participate at the the Nationals, the Futurity and also the  largest west coast shows, The AWE show in Portland and the International Alpaca Odyssey in Del Mar, California. It looks like there will be some from the barns which is good news although not the entire expectation from the breedings. We simply chose animals for the groups that would retain good value and produce well for us from the proposed breedings so this is a nice result. Tim also has some handy cria at his farm that will shown over East.

Good news internationally as well. We've sold several herdsires to buyers in the UK which was truly the most trying sales experience I have ever endured but worth it. Through the vagaries of international animal trade we have found our way and finally have started two groups of quarantine on our property. It gives huge credibility to our farm and Snowmass Alpacas who I sold on behalf of. It also paves the way for introducing ET to the Brits because unlike Americans they have welcomed its concept. Establishing the quarantine facility has meant we are ready to trade internationally and means perhaps in the future we may not rely just on US sales.

Never a dull moment here at Pucara!!

I don't care if I'm worth $20,000 where's the milk bar?

ALPACA BREEDING 101

One of the most difficult tasks Jude and I have is not only to get the females pregnant as efficiently as possible, but to keep them pregnant and to educate our new clients in the nuances of how things can change quickly. You just cannot say every one of the alpaca females is going to have a baby every year. It can be close if all goes to plan but highly improbable.

First of all the young females are generally not ready for breeding until 14 months of age. Any younger than 14 months is generally a waste of time to breed. At the first breeding about 60% get pregnant and the balance generally conceive in another two or three attempts. They are bred and rechecked every 7 days. Once they are thought to be around 30 days pregnant (they won't allow the male to breed them after the initial mating) we ultrasound to confirm the pregnancy. Occasionally there is early miscarriage because of immaturity, perhaps ill health or maybe a change in nutrition or perhaps even harsh weather. Sometimes they "slip" their pregnancy for no reason at all, just like humans. Some babies are just not meant to be and their bodies know that and can deal with it with no damage or problems. But once the girls are pregnant generally they will have a cria within 335-350 days. On our farm they are ultrasounded again at around 60 days then put into a pasture with other girls of the same status. We have three groups of females - the full term and new mothers, the breeding group and the pregnant group. The first two months is the most common time for a miscarriage to occur. All the girls in this status are pregnancy tested as often as it is feasible to check. These tests are not by ultrasound but by putting them in with a male who will try to mount them, so a pregnant female will reject (sometimes by spitting and kicking!) the male's advances. We conduct these "spit offs" every six weeks throughout the pregnancy. The majority of females carry their cria to term once they are over the 60 day mark. But sometimes, and this happens in a herd of our size about once a year, a female will have the early positive scans and spit off for the remaining 9.5 months, but produce nothing in the end. Her hormones are still telling her she is pregnant, so we get no sign that she isn't until she gets close to 12 months and we start asking questions. You can't always tell just by looking at a female that she's pregnant, they often hold the baby right up in the abdomen. This is extremely frustrating as she loses 12 months in her breeding program - and ours!

One of the problems that can affect pregnancy in these livestock is disease passed on from other animals. We had a minor" abortion storm" as they call it in 2007 when a couple of our females aborted near full term pregnancies. We felt like we were living on the sharp edge of a knife, checking paddocks all day long plus barns of a night for any signs of terminating pregnancies.We tested for everything under the sun and saw nothing. We even tested for toxoplasmosis that can be introduced by cats or rodents. Google and Yahoo, our beloved cats, were in the firing line for a brief time. In the end just out of frustration we vaccinated all the female population of the farm, and later the males, for leptospirosis, even though the blood work we had done was inconclusive to its presence. After that we did not lose another pregnancy. Trials and tribulations!

Along with the so called "respiratory disease syndrome" that appeared across the US herd this year it made for a bugger of a year husbandry wise but in essence, on reflection, for us it wasn't that bad. We lost a couple of cria to abortion and maybe one to the respiratory problem which is a pretty good result from having almost 400 alpaca on the farm. It speaks volumes about the resiliency of the alpaca. And we are pleased that we were able to deal with these sitautions as they arose.

In proof reading what I just wrote it started to sound a little like an 'excuse" column but its not. The fact alpacas are living things. They get sick. The first time we lost an alpaca in Australia our vet said "well if you've got livestock you've got deadstock"...its harsh but sums it up pretty well! All we can do is try and manage proactively and try to avoid preconcieved problems and our experience certainly has helped there.

BUCKEYE WINTER

Well, winter is officially upon us here in Ohio. We just finished a week with temperatures in the low teens and for a few nights, they dipped down near zero. Each morning as I walk out to the barn with the cold creeping in through my clothes, I wonder how in the world the alpacas can survive such conditions. Then I remember they’re built for it. As long as they are dry and able to get out of the wind, their thin legs and fleece covered, barrel shaped bodies help them conserve heat…anyway, they don’t seem to complain as long as they have water, good grain and hay to eat.

I suppose we’ll have a few more frigid days and nights before spring.

But, spring will be here soon enough and the thought of it really excites me because based on the look of some of last year’s cria, we may have a few show candidates. I’ll be keeping an eye on them over the next months and will determine which of the early shows to attend and which of our boys and girls will be traveling.

As I mentioned in the previous newsletter, our seminar experience last year was very good and I look forward to good things in 2008.  Between the shows and hosting the Thrive and Survive and Planning For Profit programs in Ohio and Oregon, it will be a busy year.

In addition to reviewing the quality of last year’s production for potential show candidates, we are also in the process of reviewing the herd to determine which of the alpacas are sale candidates.

As planned, we want to begin selling alpacas in 2008. As we select sale candidates, we will do so with the aim of producing the best cash flow result while maintaining the herd’s production capacity.

If our experiences from 2006 and 2007 provide any prediction, the majority of sales will occur in the last quarter of the year.